Just because most people don’t want something to happen doesn’t mean it won’t. So it is with a no-deal Brexit. I believe the majority of MPs, ministers and most people across the UK are opposed to the self-inflicted damage to our economy and security that would result from crashing out of the EU. But there are just 81 days left, and there is a growing danger that a combination of brinkmanship, political paralysis, siren voices and drift will push us over the cliff edge.
This is too serious for parliament to stand by. That is why I have tabled an amendment to the finance bill with a group of other cross-party committee chairs to put safeguards in place against no deal.
The amendment would mean that if the government wanted to use some of the specific powers in the finance bill to implement no deal, it would have to give parliament a vote first or apply to extend article 50. The amendment doesn’t affect the normal operations of the Treasury and government. But it does make it harder for the government to drift into no deal without parliament being able to direct it.
The damage from no deal would be deep and long-lasting. The police will immediately lose access to the European criminal databases, currently checked 500 million times a year in order to stop wanted criminals and terror suspects. Things like this and the European arrest warrant help save lives and deliver justice, and the police say without them our country is less safe.
The sudden switch to WTO tariffs would hit our economy too. One company in my constituency told me that the price of one of its crucial ingredients would double overnight. Border delays would damage the tight supply chains on which manufacturing industry, jobs and apprenticeships all depend.
No deal would weaken us internationally as well – including in the negotiation of future trade deals. It would shatter the UK’s reputation for diplomacy, sound governance and reason.
Boris Johnson may make flippant remarks about prawn cocktail crisps. John Redwood may promise that our farmers will grow more British produce (presumably overcoming the life-cycle of plants by getting more seeds into the ground in time for April). But they are playing games with other people’s lives and livelihoods.
I have heard some argue that they need the imminent threat of no deal to persuade people to back the prime minister’s withdrawal agreement, if not next week then later on. But the reality is that there is no majority for the deal either in parliament or the country – and this is an irresponsible way to try to resolve something with such lasting consequences.
The country can’t afford to play Brexit chicken and wait to see who blinks first. We need to ensure that parliament has the powers to prevent no deal if it reaches that point.
My amendment has support from MPs who will back the prime minister’s deal and MPs who oppose it, MPs who voted to leave and MPs who want a second referendum. It doesn’t avoid the difficult debates and disagreements ahead over the best way forward, but it at least gives us the chance to rule out the worst outcome. For the sake of families, businesses and our country, we have to make sure that we can prevent the chaos and damage of a no-deal Brexit.